45 min

Global And Local Investment — Corona Virus and the potential risk and reward due to fluctuating global markets

In short

Financial advisers Michael Haldane and Mauro from Global and Local Investment Advisors set the early coronavirus market panic against past pandemics, explain why China's shutdown stalls supply chains worldwide, and describe it as a black swan event with no reliable numbers. Practical guidance: expect further falls but a quick rebound, ask your adviser how much of a 10% move you actually carry, and hold cash if over 50.

How does coronavirus compare with past pandemics historically?

Michael goes back to about 1340, when roughly 200 million died in Europe — perhaps a third of the world's population — and Europe took 200 years to recover its people and economy. In 1918, Spanish flu killed around 50 to 100 million within 20 months, with 400 to 500 million affected worldwide.

How deadly does the virus actually appear to be at this point?

The figures cited are nine deaths in every thousand cases, with the bulk being elderly or already sick, and people around age 40 mostly fine. Thousands of milder cases are probably sitting at home with a fever and recovering within a week, so nobody really knows the true numbers.

Will this really affect South Africa if the cases are all in the northern hemisphere?

Yes, because fear alone moves markets, and South African assets are exposed. Reported cases cluster in northern winter countries, with one Nigerian case being an Italian businessman, and there may be huge numbers of unreported African cases. Markets came off heavily the previous week regardless.

Why does a shutdown in China damage businesses in South Africa?

Because stock cannot leave. Clients in different industries have orders sitting in locked Chinese factories with no trucks and no ships, and one said he loses the business if goods do not arrive within a month. Around 65% of China's economy is back, but 100 million workers have not returned.

What is a black swan event and why does it matter for investors now?

It is something completely out of the blue that cannot be planned for and has no numbers attached. Unlike past crashes driven by weak economies, American markets were at all-time highs ten days earlier, then fell over 10% on blind panic — meaning they could rebound just as fast.

Should I pull my money out and put it under the mattress?

No. That is the panic reaction rather than the correct one. Global and Local are taking a middle path, expecting further falls but positioning for a quick bounce, with four to eight months to get back to normal once it passes. Today's rise could be a dead cat bounce.

What should I be asking the person who manages my money?

Ask how much capital you lose if markets fall 10%, and how much of the gain is yours if they rise 10%. A properly structured portfolio takes only a portion of the pain — perhaps a 2% fall against a 10% market drop, and 3% of a 10% rise.

What is the difference between a broker and an investment adviser?

A broker sells the product their company mandates, often without knowing the underlying fund, whereas an independent investment adviser reviews the funds and takes an annual trail fee, typically half a percent to 1% of the capital managed. When client capital grows the adviser earns more, which is described as a more ethical model.

Is there any opportunity in this for someone with cash to invest?

Yes, once the dust settles markets are expected to rise quite quickly. Valuations have dropped — the All Share fell from about 58,000 to the 52,000s. The rand is overdone at around 15.60; waiting for roughly 14.80 could make the first six months of returns unusually good.

In their words

Taken from the recording, word for word.

It is completely out of the blue. It cannot be planned and no one knows what will happen. There isn't any numbers on it. It's completely out of nowhere.

So bottom line, China is the world's engine. It orders all the petrol, the oil, chrome, still everything.

In a year, people will look back and actually say we overreacted and because of that, we hurt the markets.

So if the markets fall 10%, your portfolio might only fall 2%. And if the markets arise by 10%, you might only earn 3%.

You have to know how your investments are structured, what product they're in, what funds they're in, what assets those funds are investing in, what your overall picture looks like.

Key takeaways

  1. Every country is right to protect its population, but the economic consequence of locked-down workers, cancelled events and empty hotels is disastrous while it lasts.
  2. China is described as the world's engine, so a shutdown coinciding with Chinese New Year stalls orders, shipping and 80% of global air traffic.
  3. Because this is a black swan event, markets can swing sharply either way and today's rise may be a dead cat bounce rather than a recovery.
  4. Investors over 50 are advised to move 25% of the portfolio into cash or money market instruments and switch back when things appear to be coming right.
  5. Any money set aside monthly should stay flexible, with online access, no cost to change it and the ability to add to it, because life happens.
  6. Moody's is the only agency still rating South Africa investment grade, and a downgrade would push money offshore, weaken the rand and make borrowing harder — though much of it may already be priced in.

Show notes

On this episode I chat with Michael and Mauro about the Corona virus and the impact it could have on the economy, we chat about the potential risks and rewards due to the impact of the virus on the world economy.

 

http://www.globallocal.co.za/

Frequently asked questions

Am I entitled to phone my adviser and demand an explanation?

Yes. It is well within your rights and you have to know how your investments are structured, which products and funds they sit in and what those funds invest in. It is your money.

What was said about the recent budget speech?

It was described as the best budget possible under the circumstances: company tax, VAT and personal income tax did not rise, focus fell on state-owned enterprises and government spending, and sin taxes on smoking, vaping and alcohol went up.

What does junk status actually mean?

Technically it does not exist — the correct term is sub-investment grade. Ratings agencies measure the risk of a country defaulting on its loans, and below their investment line most large global investors will not put money.

What is the minimum needed to start investing with them?

A minimum debit order of 500 or a lump sum of anything over 10,000. They will look at everybody, working from what you earn, what you spend and what you are comfortable putting away.

Where should money be kept if it is needed soon?

Inside South Africa with access to it, for goals like a house or education. A longer time horizon justifies going overseas, summed up as loving the country but exporting your money.

Transcript

The full conversation, 6,563 words.

- It's time for us to say good evening to you. Michael and Mauro, how are you doing, guys? - Very well, thank you. It was a very interesting way, yeah. The roads were under water, but I gotcha. - Listen, I gotta tell you, it was into Friday. Do you remember that big storm and big rain on Friday? I had to drive from Pretoria here. I was standing in for Darren. And I literally waded through water to get into the station ankle deep. So yes, soggy, squelchy socks for three hours was a lot of fun. - But it is a very special Monday and worth the effort. - Absolutely. - I was away for the weekend, so sorry, guys. - You don't care. You were having fun, so we're warm. It is special because we've now decided, and due to popular demand, we're gonna do an hour because we just cannot fit everything in to half an hour. And you mailed me yesterday, Michael, and gave us a very interesting topic to talk about. And it's something that's in the news at the moment, and I'm also very confused. So one of the things that I noticed is, of course, all the jokes that are going around.

And sometimes I think there might be in a bit of bad taste. So just for my mates out there, I can state categorically that man flu is not the coronavirus, okay? Good, so don't say anything more about that. But we are gonna talk coronavirus, and you brought up a very interesting point here. You know, there's this virus that's out there, and there's two different camps almost. One camp that's going, don't worry about it, and the other that is in absolute panic. And this must be affecting the markets. - Can I maybe rather go back 600 years, start there?

- Let's do that. In 1340-ish, Europe, everybody got really sick.

Boils under their arms, high fever, dead within a week.

Probably 200 million died. That was of the entire world population at that time, maybe a third. Europe took 200 years to make up

for its lost people economy. - Wow, 200 years to recover, geez. - 1918, the war ended, World War I.

Soldiers came home, and around 50 to 100 million people

died within 20 months. 400 to 500 million in the world affected. Spanish flu.

Today, six weeks ago, we heard of a place no one had ever heard of, Wuhan. Wuhan, where's Wuhan? I looked it up. It is a city the size of London.

It was locked down. A number of other cities locked down. 50 million people confirmed to their houses for weeks. Because of a virus probably coming from eating wild animals.

Six weeks later, the world is in a blind panic. I'm not a doctor, so I don't know. I would also be anxious if there was a chance I died.

But the figures now are nine out of every thousand die.

Those, the bulk are the elderly or the sick.

And the age 40 mostly are fine. The other factor is there are thousands of cases that are probably the people at home that have a minor version, a fever, whatever. And they are cured within a week. So no one really knows. The issue is every country is saying, we have to look after our population.

That is our job. That is our job, and that's good. But what they are thinking is, what effect will that have on the economy? Which is disastrous at the moment. - Well, I mean, I know there's a friend of mine whose dad is based over there. He does contract work. And since last year has been confined to his apartment. They drop a food, they drop a water. He can't go to work. And I keep thinking, okay, that's one person that I know of. How many other thousands, hundreds of thousands? And if you're not going to work, what's happening to those establishments? And this is the crux of what we're gonna be talking about. - It's actually worse than that. So you can't go to work, you can't go shopping. - Yeah. - In large parts, well, large parts of Northern Italy, children can't go to school. Events have been canceled. The Geneva Motor Show has been canceled. There's been a couple of, there's been a convention in Cape Town that's been canceled. So events have been canceled. You've got situations that like Disneyland Paris, for example, is closed at the moment, okay? So people who have been placed under quarantine in their homes can't actually leave their homes in Wuhan, in Europe, the fact that schools have been closed and sort of people are stopped from going to work, doesn't mean they've got other stuff to do.

They are literally hanging around, not able to do anything. So economic activity is not happening. And that in the whole is gonna affect financial markets, in fact, it already has. - Well, this is what I wanted to talk about because there's a couple of people out there going, we're in South Africa, it's not gonna affect us. And money-wise, it's not gonna affect us. And yet there's other people that are going, boys, you need to sit up and take notice 'cause it could affect us. That's why you're here. - Yeah, but you've got to look at other factors. For example, if you look at there's a map that I was seeing today showing the number of reported cases and deaths in every country around the world. Now, if you look at it's affecting, what they're reporting is the number of deaths and reported cases around the developed world. - Yeah. - Okay? And in countries like Cambodia, Vietnam, and so on. The first thing you realize is that it is mainly sort of the Northern countries, Northern Hemisphere countries, sort of going through Middle East, sort of Northern Africa, and then into Europe, USA and Canada, okay? If you look South of that, there's not been a lot of reporting, okay? So there's one case that's been reported in Nigeria, for example, and it's an Italian businessman.

But if you look at everything around that, it's saying a couple of things. The first thing is it looks like at the moment it's concentrated in the Northern winter countries, okay? So there's some argument saying that as soon as those areas start warming up, the virus will die off naturally, okay? The other thing is what about the unreported cases? I mean, there could be hundreds of thousands of unreported cases in Africa, for example, where it's just a flu, and people die off flu, and then that's what happens. - Yeah, 'cause we're tough in Africa. - Well, yes and no, but also, it's kind of, you don't really know what those numbers are gonna be. So there's a lot of different thinking around this, but at the moment, the fear is running high, and that's affecting markets, and we saw markets come off quite heavily last week. Sort of a bit of a recovery today, but we'll have to see what happens in the days going forward. - Okay, so when we come back, let's talk a little bit more in depth about this, because it's one of those things, you think about the loss of life, you think about the human impact, you don't think about the financial impact necessarily. And what does that mean for us, and for people that have maybe got offshore investments, those kind of things.

We'll talk more about that when we come back. By the way, if you'd like to ask any questions, this is the most important thing, okay? 41348 is the SMS number, 41348, those SMS is charged at 150. Otherwise, WhatsApp is 0848220938. We'd love to have you as part of the discussion. I believe you've also got your info at... - Global Local. - [email protected], where you can send questions to the guys. Michael, one of the team will certainly get back to you. I know you've had quite a bit of those addressed to you, but if you want to talk to them on it, please feel free to do so, that WhatsApp number again, 0848220938. When we come back, we're going to find out what sort of impact this can have and will have on your investments. It is Mix 93.8. What's Involved, proudly brought to you by Global and Local Investment. This is what's involved on Monday night, proudly brought to you by Global and Local Investment. And we've got Michael O'Mouro in the studio with us. We're talking about the fact that we have this coronavirus and how it will affect, I nearly said infect. We don't want it to infect you at all, but how it could potentially affect you and the markets, et cetera, et cetera. And while we were in the music break, Michael promised to scare the pants off of me.

So let's hear it. How bad, how much worry should we have? - So I was in with a client recently, and I said, "How's the business?" And he said, "It's good, but all of our orders are in China. They're in a factory and they can't leave because the factory's locked. There's no trucks, there's no ships. They're all locked away at home." He says, "I've got the orders, but if I don't have it within the next month, I lose the business." I then heard that from another two clients

in completely different industries. They've got the work, but they haven't got that special widget they can hand on. So bottom line, China is the world's engine.

It orders all the petrol, the oil, chrome, still everything. This happened during Chinese new year.

It is the world's biggest event of people moving. 800 million people move from where they live to their mom, dad, wherever. So it happened when 800 million people went at home. The Chinese government said, "Lockdown, you can't believe." So right now of all articles that I have looked at,

about 65% of the Chinese economy is back to sort of normal. But there's a hundred million workers that have not got back to their office, factory, whatever it is. And because of that, the world can't work. That's number one. Number two, airlines. No airline is flying into China, Italy, Japan, a couple,

but 80% of the world's air traffic is waiting. The world's biggest traveler is interesting enough Chinese.

- Yeah, yeah, that I did know. - They go everywhere. They go to Berlin and they go, yeah, they go there and they spend lots and lots of money, but they're not traveling now. So hotels are empty. And if that lasts for longer, it will cripple the economy.

And that's what's happening right now. And that up until last week, a Monday, nothing happened. They then had the first cases in Italy and everything went bad because it was affecting the West. Now it mattered. - So you think of a city like Venice. Venice is the epicenter of the virus in Italy. Venice is one of the biggest tourist attractions in the world. Who the most tourists in the world, the Chinese, where have they been going? Well, a lot of them have been going to Venice. So that's effectively could be one of the sources of the virus in Italy. You've got cities like Paris. Paris is the most visited city in the world. Can you imagine Paris without tourists? 'Cause that's what's happening right now. - I'm sure the Parisians would like to imagine Paris without tourists to a degree. But now you say this, but now in terms of the markets, how would this, 'cause to my mind, if I've got money invested or anything and I'm thinking, okay, the world's going to hell in a hand basket. I'm gonna wanna get everything I can out as quickly as I can. Is that where we are? - No, that isn't where we are. What has happened now is called a

black swan event. It is completely out of the blue. It cannot be planned and no one knows what will happen. There isn't any numbers on it. It's completely out of nowhere. We have had in the past market crashes because the economy was weak. Up until 10 days ago, America's markets were at an all time high. Absolutely booming. And last week they fell over 10% due to blind panic. But as fast as it falls, it can on the other side go up.

So for our clients right now, we are walking a tight rope. We have to be moderate in our approach that it might get worse. And on the other side, we have to be ready for the markets to quickly bounce.

So in our situation, we have chosen the middle path.

We suspect the markets will fall more and we suspect that it will take four to eight months after this has all happened to get back to normal. - Okay. - You just have to remember that markets don't move in a straight line. So we've seen the markets up today. SMP is up at the moment. And we can't assume that this is the bounce back. This could be a phenomenon known as the dead cat bounce. - Okay, it's a horrible, I know. - It's a horrible term. - I was about to say, guys, it's a horrible term. - And it comes from the fact that even a dead cat will bounce.

So effectively, this could just be the guys that followed the market last week, they saw it down. They're seeing an opportunity now at current valuations. They will climb in and buy stocks, pushing the prices up. And as soon as they've bought the stocks that they need, you might just see the markets fall further. - Okay, so like Michael says, we're balancing a lot of things at the moment. We are looking at increasing positions in cash and bonds because that is interest bearing and that's where the safe money is gonna go. - Yeah. - The other thing that sort of history has taught us is that in situations like this, you'll see an increase in the gold price and a higher dollar, okay? The gold in the dollar being the refuge of lost resort, if I can put it that way, okay? Now we have seen that. And again, is it protracted? We don't know. - Okay, so when we come back, can you help somebody out like me and explain to me in very simple layman's terms, if I've got money, let's say I had money invested in with you guys and I'm suddenly going, uh-oh, what's gonna happen? 'Cause if like the economy collapses, I'm gonna be pointing fingers at you and going, what are you doing? What are you guys doing?

You've got my money. First thing is I want it back. I want it all back right now so I can hide it under my mattress. That's the panic reaction. It's probably not the correct reaction. So let's talk about, I mean, have you shared with me the worst that it's gonna get yet? Or have you got more horror stories for me? - It is completely unknown. - Yeah? - Unknown. This is blind panic right now. In a year, people will look back and actually say we overreacted and because of that, we hurt the markets. - Yeah. - So it will pass. - Yeah. - It will pass, but it could get worse before it gets better. And it's our job to just tell people if it does get worse, what must they do. - Fantastic. That's what we're looking forward to. It is what's involved this Monday night. And this project brought to you by Global and Local Investment. My special guests in studio from Global and Local, Michael Haldane, who is the founder. - Yeah. - The founder of it. And we've also got more in here. Founder's director. These are the guys that make the whole place work, okay? Big team, but these are the two guys. - Yes, the two guys that make all the wheels turn and have got, let's hope. I believe they do though. A lot of the answers.

It is what's involved this Monday night. Proudly brought to you by Global and Local Investment Advisors. Did I get it right that time? Do we get to do this again? Okay. - Absolutely. - I think the demand is gonna be kind of big for you guys to stick with this because it's such a vast subject and such a vast topic and there's so much to learn. And I think education is vitally important and that's what you guys are about. - So let's just get back on the virus. - Back on track, yes. - You asked us earlier. What do we do? So let's look at the best and the worst. The markets could fall by a further 10%, 20%. The markets could bounce by an equal amount. We don't know. This is the unknown. So to everybody out there, your advisor that looks after your assets, you have to ask him or her. If the markets fall 10%, how much of my capital would I lose? And if the markets rise to 10%, how much of that gain is mine? Now, you can't have all the loss and you can't have all the upside. But if your portfolio is structured correctly,

if there's pain, you will only take a portion of that pain. So if the markets fall 10%, your portfolio might only fall 2%. And if the markets arise by 10%, you might only earn 3%. So it's how to average out your element of risk.

- Now, question, and Laura, maybe you can answer this one for me. If I have money invested with an advisor, a broker, whatever the case may be, is it my right to give them a call and go, "Hey, sorry, I'm a little bit concerned about all of this. "You haven't spoken to me. "What's happening? "Is that my right? Can I do that?" - Of course. In fact, you have to know this information. You have to know how your investments are structured, what product they're in, what funds they're in, what assets those funds are investing in, what your overall picture looks like. And it's well within your rights. It's your money. - Because I know so many times you get the guys go, "Sign, yeah, sign, yeah. "What do you want? "So we're gonna give you the safe option "so it'll be a steady growth of this and that. "The next thing, we're gonna invest "a little bit offshore blue chip, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. "Sign on the dotted line, hand over your money. "That's the last you hear from them." And that is a scary, scary thing. I mean, we discussed this before. It happened with my mom. Where her money was with the last crash that we had, she lost a truckload of money. Nobody came and went, "Nah, sorry, hands up." They were like, "Nah, tough." My numbers might be the wrong, but a few years ago in South Africa, there were 28,000 advisors.

The majority of those work for a company, a Liberty, a Momentum, a Santa and whatever they own. They offer product. They say, "You need a retirement annuity. "Let's put you in it." This is the fund I'll enter. You enter because my company has said you have to enter into that fund. I don't know anything about that fund. I'm a broker. I'm not an investment advisor. There's a distinct difference. In the country, there are some fantastic investment, had advisors who will say, "You and these 10 funds, monet risk, "you and of these 10 funds, "8 are doing well, 2, we need to change." And that is the questions the listeners must ask.

If they're not getting the right answers, well, put everything in cash. (laughing) - Can't talk to us, this is the right answer. - But very often you get told, okay, what are you gonna do? Well, you have to have an RA, slam your money into an RA. Okay, you got a little bit extra. Let's put it into endowment policy. Thank you, have a nice day. We'll see you next year to tell you that you gotta invest more money or that your returns are down, whatever. I think there is a massive lack of knowledge, of education, of understanding. That's why I'm so happy that you guys are doing this at the moment, so that people that are listening can ask those questions. 'Cause I don't believe there is such a thing as a stupid question. - I met a client this afternoon at 4. - Yeah. - Every investment he had came from one, or from one organize station. - Yeah. - Which he works at, he works at. He said, Marco, I've had these products for 15 years. The agent that entered, me entered, I've never seen. He only, he only calls me when he wants new business. - Yeah. - And that is an old style model which has unfortunately in our industry continued. Most investment advisors are independent. Take an annual trail fee.

- Yeah. - So it is a fee based on the client's capital. The more you earn for the client, the more you earn for the investor. If the investor's unhappy with you, they cancel you.

And that is a lot more ethical model. - Yeah. - A lot of those trail fees as Michael explained is, they're based on a percentage. - Yeah. - It's a half a percent or 1% of the capital that you manage as an advisor. If when the client's capital grows, your income grows. When the client's capital does not grow or shrinks, you've got a double problem. Not only are you earning less, but you've got an R8 client on the phone. - Yeah, yeah. - That's a very fair model. - Okay, that makes sense to me because I don't mind, I don't mind you earning more if you're making me more. I'm gonna go, hey, go for it, buddy. You're making me money. You deserve to get paid for that. I had a problem and I know legislation has changed quite a lot. But I remember in the beginning, you're putting all of this money and then afterwards you find out the first sort of two years you actually were paying the broker and your money was doing nothing. - No, don't get me wrong. With individual life companies, they have changed a lot. So there are some excellent products.

But an advisor must regularly communicate with their clients

and in situations like this, just put them at ease that the funds are being looked after properly. - So now, let's get back, and we've still got some time, but let's get back quickly to the situation. Coronavirus is out there, there is panic in the markets. You've already said people can phone whoever they're dealing with and go, hey, what is actually happening? What other advice would you give to people out there now? Do we sit tight? Is there, what is the good news of this? 'Cause I mean, there must be, I don't want to know that every silver lining has a cloud. I need to know that there is some good news. - There is so much opportunity in this. When the dust settles, we believe the markets will rise quite quickly. So right now, if a client has funds to invest,

maybe wait a month more, the round right now is also overdone. It is too weak against the American dollar. - You're telling me. - Right, now it's at around 15, 60. We think if it comes back to around 14, 80, that is a good value. So right now, if anyone out there is thinking of investing, wait for a bit, and then probably your returns for the first six months

will be out of the ordinary in a good way. - Because one of the things, and I'm sure I'm not the only one that's sitting with this, is a lot of the stuff, a lot of the software and the licensing that I use, my fiance uses, in our business. It's all based in American currency, and it's a monthly fee that you have to pay. And when you purchase the software, and it was 13 grand, 50 or something, you go, all right, I can work it out. What's it likely to do? Maybe I'll go to 14, 14. Now, suddenly you get a bill on the first of March, and you're going, what? Because they don't care. This is ideally where you need some money over there in a bank account to be able to pay these things on a regular basis. Am I right? See, I ask you simple questions. I'm a simple man. - They're practical questions. - They're practical questions. - So, yes, in fact, when we see markets in this type of behavior, you know, sort of two, three weeks ago, the S&P was at all time high. It's not off that, okay? You know, sort of 10 days ago, the All Share Index was sitting at 58,000 points. It's not sitting somewhere in the 52,000 points. - Yeah. - We talk of valuation of stocks, okay? So, you know, sort of two weeks ago, 10 days ago, the stocks were sitting at a very high valuation.

Now they're sitting at a much lower valuation, which means there's opportunities. - Yes. - So that's pretty much what Michael's alluding to now. If you're looking at currencies, you're gonna see pretty much the same thing, okay? And we're expecting the currency to improve over the next, I don't know, a little while, once all this panic has settled a bit. You have to remember that the South African market is a very liquid market, okay, which means that money can move very freely, okay? And as a result, when there's global events like this one,

you'll find that the rain weakens very quickly, okay? And it then can come back, okay? Now, coming back is also dependent on sort of our local stuff and, you know, all the stuff that's happening internally, but a lot of it is also because of what happens externally. So as an emerging market, we are one of the emerging markets of the most liquid currency, okay? So when markets, or when sort of big global investors look around the markets and they say, you know, these markets are funny and weak, we don't know what they're doing, let's pull some money out of the markets, they tend to not look at what they've got in the developed markets, they tend to look at what's happening in the emerging markets, and they'll say, ah, South Africa, we can get money out of there very quickly, pull it. And it's when you see that big drop-off in the rain, like we've seen now from 15 to 1550 or something. - All right, when we come back, I'd like to talk a little bit, because I think also, you know, this whole coronavirus thing has taken a front seat. We also have, though, this little incident of a budget speech that happened fairly recently. - I don't know about that. - There was, you know, I don't know if it's just gonna cost us more to live, but there was a couple of things in there.

Also, you know, I like to call them the grumpies, you call them the Moody's rating. What is gonna happen there? I mean, you know, a lot of people are going, oh no, we're gonna be downgraded to like trash size or something. When we come back, can we talk a bit about that? 'Cause I think it is linked. - It's absolutely linked. - Fantastic stuff. - It is what's involved this Monday night, and we are chatting to the guys from Global and Local Investment Advisors. They are proudly sponsoring the show tonight. Thank you guys, we'll be back in just a bit. Proudly brought to you by Global and Local Investment Advisors. We are talking the impact of the coronavirus on the market, what's been happening, how it's been happening, why it's been happening, and what sort of effects it can have. We're looking at mitigating that sort of risk. So for people that are doing this themselves, let's go back a step, because I said I wanted to talk about the budget speech and about Moody's, et cetera, et cetera. But let's go back a bit. If I'm investing myself, if I'm one of those brave souls that thinks I know what to do, in a situation like this, is there advice? Yeah, your advice would probably be ask a professional.

- Don't do it. - Look, if-- - I would be scared to do it myself, I really would. - If you end up 50 and you have time on your hands, probably hang 10. If you're over 50, of your portfolio put 25% in cash.

Money, market, instruments. So that it's, if the market's for further, the effect on you is a lot, the less. - Okay. - And once it appears as if things are coming right, switch back to your original portfolio. - Okay. So that's a sort of a safe-ish thing to do. - It's, as I said earlier, this is a black swan event. It can swing up quickly, but we don't know. - We don't know, we don't know what else is gonna happen. Let's go back locally though. I mean, there was that little budget speech, we seem to have got lost in all the noise, and the Moody's rating as well. What's happening there? Is that having an impact as well? Will it have an impact? - Okay, let me talk about the budget speech, first of all. The budget speech was probably the best budget speech we could have had under the circumstances. So sort of company tax vet, personal income tax didn't go up. - Yeah, which everybody thought was gonna happen. - I'm very upset that they're gonna be charging us more for cigars. - Six train order. - Well, more for, if you smoke anything, it's gonna cost you extra. - Vaping as well. - Vaping, they're apparently hitting you as well. And of course, alcohol syntax. - So the syntaxes are gonna cost you more.

We expected that. The big focus there was, you know, working on the SOEs and sort of reducing cost in government spending. It was the best budget we could have. It was quite interesting that it was about 40 minutes long, which is very short for a budget speech. And essentially, there wasn't much to talk about. So the budget speech and the implementation of what the minister announced is gonna happen in the budget speech that we have to see what will happen. And we know all the usual stuff. The fuel levees going up on the 1st of April. Those are sort of standards. - Isn't that amazing? Positive oil has come down, fuel is going to go down, but then we're gonna just raise it again. - Just, you know. - So that's what's gonna happen there. The Moody's rating, Moody's is the only rating agency that has us on an investment grade. They are considering moving us to what's known as below investment grade or under investment grade, sub-investment grade. What people, what the journalists out there like to refer to as junk. - That's the bit that's always worried me 'cause I need to understand that. And I've been asked that question. What happens if it means we're junk status, sounds bad. - Junk status sounds really horrible.

And in technical investment terms, junk status doesn't exist. You talk about sub-investment grade. So effectively, the ratings agencies out there measure the risk of a country defaulting on its loans. - Okay. - All right. So if you're a 1st world country developed market and you've got loans out there and the chances are that you'll never default on the loan, you're typically what they refer to as a AAA rating. - Okay. - Then all the different ratings agencies from there downwards have got a whole lot of different sort of ways there. They measure the stuff, but they've all got this line that says sub, from below that line, they talk about sub-investment grade. Now sub-investment grade effectively just means that, you know, it's below the prudent investor, okay? Now you've got a section out there of big global investors that invest below that line, okay? But the majority invest above that line. So we would see a flood of money moving out of South Africa quite quickly, okay? And that would cause the rent to weaken, okay? And it would also make it more difficult for South Africa as the South African governments to borrow more money offshore, okay? And also for South African companies to borrow money from outside, okay?

So that would be the net effect. - Okay. - Okay. - So that- - So far I'm with you. - You're with me. - Yes. - The overall, the net actually effect that we'll feel, we'll only know ahead of time, but what we've been reading recently is that, in fact, a lot of this downgrading to sub-investment grade by Moody's has already been priced in. So it's already been calculated into the currency already. - Okay. - Yeah. So, but, you know, that's a full cost. We don't know if that's going to, if that's actually the case or not. - So we're almost out of time. Some closing thoughts, gentlemen, in terms of, you know, we've got the year ahead of us. You've committed for the next little while that you're gonna be in here helping us and talking about us. What is your advice? If I've got a little bit of extra cash, let's say I go and do something on the weekends and I'm making myself a little bit of extra cash. What would you suggest we do with that money? - Look, it- - Savings is not an option. I mean, if you put it in savings accounts, you might as well just put it under your mattress. - Look, it relates to a myriad of things. Your age, the amount of money, how long you can invest for, and the risk you are willing to enter into.

- Yeah. - So our general client, we always advise a moderate amount of risk with access on your friends within a month, because life happens. Right now, you have extra money, but in six months, you'll say, Michael, I had an extra thousand during the month. Now I haven't got anything, or I have extra now. So whatever option you enter into has to be flexible. You have to have online access and know what it is earning. You also have to have an opportunity to at all times change it without any cost. And you also have to have an opportunity to add onto it. - Okay. - So if it is money that you have to access for a house, education, whatever it is, I would generally say, leave those friends within South Africa with access on it. - Okay. - If your time horizon is a bit longer, definitely go overseas. And if you outlook on the economy, and Rand is grim, what I always says, love the country, ex-Porturos. - Is there a minimum amount? I mean, let's say, for example, I phoned you up. I've been listening to the show tonight. I phoned you up tomorrow. I go, listen, guys, I've got a couple of grand a month. I've got my little side hustle going here. So I'm making a couple of grand a month. Can I make use of your services?

Would you tell me where to put it? How do I do it? Is that something or are you gonna go, Dave, sorry, you're a small fryer, so we don't really want to deal with you. - No, we would look at everybody. - Okay. - And the amount per month depends on you. So it would be, we would look at what are you earning? What are you spending? Can the spending be reduced? Can, what are you comfortable putting away? 'Cause remember, it's also, if the investment, if the commitment is too high per month. - Yeah, then you're not gonna be able to maintain it. - Then you're not gonna be able to maintain it and you're not gonna enjoy it. - Let me answer that really simply. A minimum debit order, 500 grand or a lump sum anything over 10,000. - Okay, and you would do that. Because one of the things I wished I'd done when I was younger is done something like this. Started off with, for example, the 500 bucks. Because when you're young, you've got all of this time ahead of you. As you get older, you get to my age, suddenly that time that you thought, when you thought you were immortal and we're gonna live forever, you suddenly get this grim realization it's not gonna happen. And now the same amount of money, you know, in those days, terms these days, is gonna be scary.

If people wanna get, oh, hang on, on your hair. Ah, okay, sorry, this is just coming. We've been having some transmitter issues and the guys have been working on the transmitters. So somebody's saying, I can't hear because there's a signal problem. Don't worry about this, okay? I'll let everybody know if you are in reach of my voice and it has been a little bit fuzzy and hissy, we will be publishing the podcast in the next two to three days. So you will be able to listen to it in crystal clear digital quality audio in the next two or three days. If somebody wants to ask you guys a question, [email protected]. One of you two guys or one of the team will get back to the people that answer, no question is too small. Gentlemen, thank you so much for coming in. I feel marginally better about this whole coronavirus thing and I think we're gonna be okay, long term. - We'll be fine. - And thank you for explaining that to us. We'll see you again next month. - Done, done. - Wonderful stuff, looking forward to it. Have yourselves a great evening. It's Michael Amoro from Global and Local Investment Advisors. They proudly brought you the show What's Involved this evening. They'll be back again next month.

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